Political Prediction: Merkel Loses Chancellorship in September as Support for AfD Soars

Now that we have an Understanding of German Political Parties let's consider some scenarios from reader Bernd who lives in Germany about how the election on September 22 plays out.

In past elections, as many as 40% of the eligible population did not vote. This brings a very large pool of voters that may turn out for the anti-Euro AfD party.

Bernd comments "All indications show that AfD has a huge potential to convert nonvoters to voters. If election turnout is high, seats in Parliament may look drastically different than today."

For the past two weeks I have been watching the iPhone app Wahl-O-Meter and AfD has risen from 5% of the vote to 6.6% now.



Not only has AfD been rising, but today is the first day I have seen AfD above Die Linke. In the same timeframe, support for FDP has been sinking.

FDP is right on the bubble, polling 5% down from 5.4% or so. It takes 5% of the vote to stay in parliament.

This is significant because FDP currently has the third largest representation in parliament and is the junior partner in Merkel's existing CDU/CSU/FDP coalition. The very real danger to Merkel is FDP goes to zero percent representation.

In theory CDU, CSU, and SPD could easily form a coalition that totals over 50% of parliament. However, the SPD political party leadership has ruled out a coalition government that includes Merkel as chancellor.

AfD Support Rises to 19% in Handelsblatt Online Poll

Via Google translate, please note 19 percent would vote for the anti-euro party.

The new anti-euro party alternative for Germany (AFD) has a good chance to collect in autumn in the Bundestag. The result of a representative survey of online market research company market research on behalf of Handelsblatt Online. 19.2 percent of the 1,003 respondents affirmed therefore the question of whether they would give the party their vote in the general election (24.9 percent of men and 14.8 percent of women).

54.6 percent of respondents (56.7 percent of men, 53 percent of women) would not choose the AFD on the other hand, 26 percent of respondents stated that they have not made a choice decision (18.4 percent of men, 32.2 percent of women).

Their greatest potential voters, the party in the 46 - to 65-year-olds: 23.1 percent of this age group, the AFD would give their vote (in the 31 - to 45-year-olds: 19.3 percent among 18 - to 30 - year: 14.2 percent).

Online polls are notoriously inaccurate, so the key takeaway is continually rising interest.

A few weeks ago many news agencies were stating AfD would not reach the five percent threshold. Bernd and I think 12% or more is easily achievable.

With that backdrop out of the way, let's take a look at reader Bernd's speculative estimates for the September election.

Bernd's Speculative Estimates

• CDU/CSU: 36%
• SPD: 23%
• Grünen: 13%
• AfD: 12%
• Die Linke: 06%      
• FDP: 04%
• Piraten: 03%
• Others: 03%

Should that scenario or any close approximation play out, it will be quite difficult for Merkel to stay in power.

A "natural coalition" between CDU/CSU and AfD could in theory work, and it might not take 50% of the popular vote to form such a coalition on account of the parties losing representation. Yet, even in such scenario, the price to pay for CDU/CSU would likely be Merkel's chancellorship.

Bernd outlines four possibilities

Four Possibilities

1. SPD, CDU, CSU form a coalition in which Merkel steps aside or is forced out.
2. SPD forms a coalition with half term Merkel (CDU) and half term Steinbrück (SPD) as chancellor.
3. The politics splinters as happened in Italy with unknown effects for the coming government.
4. CDU/CSU and AfD form a coalition under a new and unknown chancellor. Together they reform EU politics.

Bernd states option four would be ideal but right now such a possibility is wishful thinking as opposed to a strong likelihood.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com