Unsustainable Social Security Promises: Spain vs. U.S.

I have written numerous times about pension problems in the US. Let's cross the Atlantic and take a peek at the setup in Spain, then let's compare the two setups.

Via translation from Libre Mercado, please consider The Chart That Will Shake Future Pensioners.

Workers vs. Pensioners

Given that eight million people age 65 and 16.7 million workers cannot sustain the current pension, imagine what will happen in the coming decades as the differential goes back even closer.

Pensions today promise Social Security payments of 100% of the average wage in the last 25 years for those with 37 years of Social Security contributions. Such payments are absolutely unsustainable. The relative income of pensioners relative to the average income of the society will sink (without massive tax looting of active workers).

Immigration could partially alleviate the problem, making the demographic transition somewhat smoother, but if new rights accrue to future pensions, immigration only delays the problem. In any case, it might be a good idea to allow free immigration to Spain in exchange for not accrue rights to Social Security.

The most important practical advice to draw from the above chart is simple: save and invest. If you trust your retirement to politicians, you will end up poor and feeling cheated.

US vs. Spain

Here are a few charts from my January 8, 2013 post Social Security Trends: Beneficiaries, Total Costs, Number of Workers, Ratio of Workers to Beneficiaries

Social Security Beneficiaries, Costs, Employment

Year	Beneficiaries	Average Monthly Benefit	Total Annual Cost	Employment	E/B Ratio
Dec-67	22,979	$73.92	$20,383,201,682	66,900	2.9114
Dec-68	23,886	$85.24	$24,432,839,002	69,245	2.8989
Dec-69	24,709	$86.47	$25,638,687,737	71,240	2.8832
Dec-70	25,701	$101.35	$31,257,463,769	70,790	2.7544
Dec-71	26,817	$113.22	$36,435,282,006	72,108	2.6888
Dec-72	28,066	$138.70	$46,712,482,840	75,270	2.6819
Dec-73	29,514	$143.99	$50,996,092,215	78,035	2.6440
Dec-74	30,576	$163.02	$59,813,483,661	77,657	2.5398
Dec-75	31,862	$179.29	$68,549,741,469	78,017	2.4486
Dec-76	32,835	$194.95	$76,815,361,682	80,448	2.4500
Dec-77	33,923	$211.16	$85,958,416,484	84,408	2.4882
Dec-78	34,453	$229.86	$95,032,473,435	88,674	2.5738
Dec-79	35,013	$258.37	$108,555,575,502	90,669	2.5896
Dec-80	35,526	$300.75	$128,213,644,374	90,936	2.5597
Dec-81	35,930	$340.84	$146,956,770,724	90,884	2.5295
Dec-82	35,778	$372.10	$159,755,010,234	88,756	2.4808
Dec-83	36,034	$393.15	$170,001,091,973	92,210	2.5590
Dec-84	36,439	$412.21	$180,244,135,062	96,087	2.6370
Dec-85	37,027	$429.35	$190,768,953,436	98,587	2.6626
Dec-86	37,683	$438.76	$198,407,802,022	100,484	2.6665
Dec-87	38,171	$461.35	$211,323,314,397	103,634	2.7150
Dec-88	38,613	$484.01	$224,268,374,172	106,871	2.7678
Dec-89	39,141	$511.89	$240,431,129,294	108,809	2.7799
Dec-90	39,825	$544.52	$260,224,095,454	109,120	2.7400
Dec-91	40,587	$568.55	$276,908,006,552	108,262	2.6674
Dec-92	41,504	$588.90	$293,296,976,201	109,416	2.6363
Dec-93	42,243	$607.48	$307,943,241,597	112,204	2.6561
Dec-94	42,882	$628.14	$323,229,663,108	116,055	2.7064
Dec-95	43,386	$648.77	$337,772,228,816	118,208	2.7246
Dec-96	43,736	$672.81	$353,113,695,411	121,002	2.7666
Dec-97	43,971	$692.82	$365,565,297,977	124,357	2.8282
Dec-98	44,246	$707.39	$375,585,941,872	127,359	2.8785
Dec-99	44,595	$730.53	$390,940,040,819	130,533	2.9270
Dec-00	45,415	$767.35	$418,187,686,581	132,481	2.9171
Dec-01	45,877	$795.69	$438,050,881,510	130,720	2.8493
Dec-02	46,444	$815.05	$454,253,081,458	130,175	2.8028
Dec-03	47,038	$840.62	$474,497,794,254	130,259	2.7692
Dec-04	47,688	$871.80	$498,889,778,321	132,316	2.7746
Dec-05	48,434	$915.71	$532,222,768,675	134,814	2.7834
Dec-06	49,123	$955.53	$563,260,007,133	136,882	2.7865
Dec-07	49,865	$987.03	$590,618,750,824	137,982	2.7671
Dec-08	50,898	$1,054.38	$643,995,009,294	134,379	2.6401
Dec-09	52,523	$1,064.41	$670,869,765,261	129,319	2.4621
Dec-10	54,032	$1,074.33	$696,579,633,240	130,346	2.4124
Dec-11	55,404	$1,122.89	$746,557,638,566	132,186	2.3858
Dec-12	56,758	$1,152.79	$785,163,217,034	134,021	2.3613

Notes for Above Table

• Employment and beneficiary numbers are in thousands.
• I computed the total annual cost as monthly benefit * 12 * number of beneficiaries. That method will tend to overstate annual costs slightly vs. totaling every month individually. Thus, the total cost may vary slightly from other published figures.

Average Monthly Social Security Benefit



Total Annual Cost of Social Security 1967-Present



Social Security Beneficiaries vs. Total Non-Farm Employment



Ratio of Workers to Social Security Beneficiaries



Social Security Benefits Analysis

• The ratio of workers to beneficiaries peaked in 1999 at 2.927 to 1.
• The ratio of workers to beneficiaries was 2.361 to 1 at the end of 2012.
• The ratio of workers to beneficiaries is falling fast and will continue to fall fast for a decade as the baby boomer population ages.
• The average payout and the number of payouts are both rising fast
• Total Social Security payouts (a multiplication of two rising numbers) are on an unsustainable exponential growth path.

The system is currently running a deficit. Trends say that deficit is going to worsen with each passing year unless benefits are cut and/or taxes are hiked.

The next chart is courtesy of Reader Tim Wallace in a January 11, post.

Social Security Burden on Non-Farm Workers



Social Security Cliff Reading

• Making Social Security Actuarially Sound in a Business-Friendly Manner
• Social Security Cliff in Sight; Retirees Will Outlive Trust Fund; Ramifications of Nonmarketable IOUs and Privatization
• Payroll Employment for Age Group 18 to 29 Shows Fewer Full-Time Employment "Regardless of Education"

Tip of the Iceberg

Unfortunately, Social Security is just a tip of the unsustainable payout promises problem. Public union pensions are trillions of dollars underfunded and several cities in California have gone bankrupt over those promises.

Detroit went bankrupt for the same reason as did Central Falls, Rhode Island (see Central Falls Set to File Bankruptcy Exit Plan; 50% Pension Reductions, 40% Slash in Police and Fire Budgets Coming Up).

Zombified Cities

• Philadelphia: 5th Largest City in US is Effectively Bankrupt; Mayor Holds Closed Meeting With Wall Street to Discuss Asset Sales
• Houston: CPAs state Houston is Bankrupt
• LA: Mayor of Los Angeles Says "Bankruptcy is Not an Option" (Of Course It Is)
• New York Cities: Public Pension Ponzi Scheme - New York Cities Borrow From Pension Plan to Make Contributions
• Baltimore: Time for Baltimore to "Pull a Vallejo" and Declare Bankruptcy
• Miami: Miami Commissioner Says Bankruptcy is City's Best Hope; Chris Christie Says New Jersey Careens Towards Becoming Greece
• Chicago: Chicago's Mayor Daley Discusses Bankruptcy For City Pensions 
• Scranton: Scranton Mayor Slashes All Public Worker Wages to $7.25 per Hour, Including Police, Fire, His Own; City Effectively Bankrupt
• Harrisburg: Pennsylvania State Capital Files for Bankruptcy
• Zombified Cities Roundup: Detroit Becomes Dumping Ground for the Dead; Financial Urgency in Miami; Oakland Pension Time Bomb; How Pensions Crashed Stockton and San Bernardino

Vallejo Round Two

Vallejo, California went bankrupt about two years ago and is headed there again because it did not shed pension promises in bankruptcy: Vallejo, Mired in Pension Debt Again; Lesson for Stockton and Detroit - Shed Those Pension Obligations Now!

As I said in the above link, Stockton and Detroit have a choice. They can cut pensions now, or cut them later in a second bankruptcy, just like Vallejo will.

Pension Promises Not Sacrosanct

Yet people keep emailing me that pension are guaranteed by law. Tell that to residents of Central Falls. Their pensions were cut 50% in bankruptcy.

Here's reality: haircuts are coming. Unions need to negotiate benefit cuts now, in a sensible manner (with the highest beneficiaries taking the biggest cuts). The alternative is across the board benefit cuts à la Central Falls.

Meanwhile please consider the solid advice from Libre Mercado:

"The most important practical advice to draw from the above chart is simple: save and invest. If you trust your retirement to politicians [or promises], you will end up poor and feeling cheated."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com