CSU Receives 49% in Bavaria State Election; Assessing the National Impact for Merkel on September 22

CSU soared to an absolute majority in the Bavaria state election. The results look like this +- 0.2% or so.

1. CSU: 48.7%
2. SPD: 20.5%
3. Freie Waehler: 8.7%
4. Die Grünen: 8.5%
5. FDP: 3.2%
6. Others: 10.4%

Majority for CSU

Freie Waehler is the Bavaria Eurosceptic party and Die Grünen is the Green Party.

Inquiring minds may be wondering how 48.7% constitutes a majority. It does because majorities are based on the percentage in government, not the percentage of voters.

Recall that the threshold for participation is 5%.

For determining parliamentary majorities, CSU received over 50% of the votes that count (the first four groups above).

The National Election Outlook

Assessing FDP Chances of Making Parliament

If these results hold for the national elections on September 22, FDP may very well be out, as I have suggested on numerous occasions.

Assessing AfD Chances of Making Parliament

AdP did not run in the Bavaria election. However, the vote looks good for AfD because most of the Freie Waehler voters will likely support AfD in the national elections.

Assessing CDU/CSU Chances Alone

It is possible CDU/CSU does not need any coalition (grand or otherwise). The math would look something like this

1. CDU/CSU: 43%
2. SPD: 22%
3. Die Grünen: 9%
4. Die Linke: 9%
5. AfD: 4.5%
6. FDP: 4.5%
7. Others: 8%

In that scenario, it would be 43:40 (again discarding everything below the 5% threshold), with no need to form a coalition.

Assessing the Red-Green Chances

The odds of SPD + Die Grünen without Die Linke are zero.

The odds of SPD + Die Grünen + Die Linke are shrinking. The Green Party once had 15% of the vote but may not get 10%. Combine that with the fact that SPD did worse than expected in Bavaria.

If neither FDP nor AfD makes it into parliament, and if SPD can get 26-28% of the vote, and if both the Greens and the Left get 9% or more, then the Red-Green coalition with Die Linke can achieve a majority.

That seems like a long shot now, but it is not impossible. Much will depend on voter turnout combined with complacency setting in for CDU/CSU combined with apathy for the smaller parties.

Even IF SPD + Die Grünen + Die Linke can form a mathematical majority, both SPD and the Greens would have to be willing to form a coalition with Die Linke. That is not out of the question, but party leaders have said they won't. Are such statements believable or not?

Assessing a Non-Grand Coalition

1. If AfD makes it into parliament without FDP (a very good chance now), then CDU/CSU + AfD could form a coalition. 
2. If AfD makes it into parliament with FDP (but at the expense of CDU/CSU), then things get more complicated depending on exact percentages. Some combinations of CDU/CSU +- FDP +- AfD would be in play.
3. If FDP makes it into parliament without AfD then the same Yellow-Black coalition as now will rule (CDU/CSU + FDP) . This scenario has diminishing chances.

Assessing the Grand Coalition

If none of the above happens, a "Grand Coalition" of CDU/CSU + SPD will happen.

So what has changed since before the Bavaria election? Not much. There are still many scenarios in which there is no "Grand Coalition".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com